Enhancing the accuracy of future projections for Sea-Level Rise by utilizing the ensemble of Global Circulation Models in the Egyptian Red Sea coastal regions

Abd El Moniem, Rowida Elsayed; Elsaeed, Gamal Helmy; Zahran, Sherein Ahmed; Ezzat, Mohammed Bahgat; Hassan, Mohammed Ahmed

doi:10.21608/erjsh.2024.289244.1313

Enhancing the accuracy of future projections for Sea-Level Rise by utilizing the ensemble of Global Circulation Models in the Egyptian Red Sea coastal regions

Document Type : Research articles

Authors

¹ Enviromental and Climate Change Research Institute, National Water Research Center, Cairo, Egypt.

² Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering at Shoubra, Benha University, Cairo, Egypt.

³ Enviromental and Climate Change Research Institute, National Water Research Center, Cairo, Egypt. El Obour High Institute of engineering and Technology

⁴ Hydrulic Research Institute, National Water Research Center, Cairo, Egypt.

10.21608/erjsh.2024.289244.1313

Abstract

Concerning global warming, sea level rise is one of the most critical problems. Therefore, it is necessary to find reliable projections for estimating coastal flooding to help manage coastlines effectively. So, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, the rise in sea level poses a significant problem in many coastal areas; hence, studying flooding of low-lying lands along coasts has become a critical issue for countries such as Egypt, which is highly vulnerable to Sea-Level Rise (SLR), raising the temperature and reducing precipitation. Due to IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Sea levels will increase by 2100, 78 cm, and up to 100 cm by 2100. However, their magnitude remains indefinite. This study establishes limits on the level of uncertainty in sea-level rise variability. The uncertainty is derived from the analysis of future projections using (28) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) on an annual basis. This study focuses specifically on the coastal zones along the Egyptian Red Sea, from Suez to Hurghada. Based on AR5, four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios were considered until 2100. It was found that there are ranges of possible rises in sea level concerning some models projecting very few centimeters while others go beyond a meter. Using optimal GCM ensembles reduces the uncertainty about predicted values on SLR. the results indicate that under each scenario, RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5, the sea level will increase by 60.5 cm, 71 cm, 77 cm, and 104 cm, respectively.

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